El Niño winter forecast: NOAA sees very strong event into 2027 as India's rabi begins
Representative image: Zauberin / Pixabay
NOAA said on October 15, 2026 a strengthening El Niño will likely last through spring 2027, as Indian states battle drought and the Centre trims its rabi grain target.
What Happened
The El Niño now under way in the Pacific Ocean is still strengthening and is likely to last through spring 2027, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said on Thursday, October 15, 2026, when its Climate Prediction Center released the winter outlook for December 2026 to February 2027. The centre put the weekly Niño 3.4 sea-surface temperature reading at 2.4 degrees Celsius above normal, up from 2.0 degrees in September, and kept its El Niño advisory in force. An update a week earlier had said a strong to very strong El Niño was most likely through January-March 2027, with a high chance that it becomes the strongest on records going back to 1950. In India, the same weather pattern is already being blamed for drought: the Centre has cut its 2026-27 foodgrain target, and Maharashtra this week declared 305 of its 358 talukas drought-hit.
Key Facts
- NOAA's Climate Prediction Center issued its winter 2026-27 outlook on October 15, 2026.
- Weekly Niño 3.4 index: plus 2.4 degrees Celsius, up from plus 2.0 degrees in September.
- The El Niño advisory remains in effect and El Niño is favoured to continue through spring 2027.
- An October 8 update gave a 54% to 83% chance, depending on the season, of a historic event of 2.5 degrees or more.
- India's agriculture ministry set the 2026-27 foodgrain target at 373.93 million tonnes, citing El Niño, with 177.72 million tonnes for the rabi season.
- Maharashtra added 40 talukas to its drought list on October 14, taking the total to 305 of 358, and promised farmers an initial Rs 5,000 before Diwali.
Why It Matters
El Niño is a periodic warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean. NOAA's outlook is written for the United States, where it expects a wetter south and a warmer north this winter. But the numbers behind it matter far beyond America, because they show how strong the event has become and how long it is expected to last.
In India, the effects are already visible on the ground. Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan said the lower foodgrain target followed a scientific assessment of El Niño conditions. The government plans to steer farmers in water-short areas away from thirsty crops and toward pulses and oilseeds for the rabi season. Maharashtra has declared more than 85 per cent of its talukas drought-hit and told banks not to use coercive methods to recover farm loans, while Telangana's cabinet has met on what it called an El Niño crisis and sought central drought aid.
A forecast that El Niño will last into spring 2027 means farmers and planners should not expect conditions to return to normal quickly. For rural households in drought-hit districts, the immediate concerns are sowing, water and incomes, which is why states are seeking relief before Diwali.
| El Niño and India, October 2026 | Figure |
|---|---|
| Niño 3.4 weekly reading | +2.4 degrees C |
| NOAA outlook period | December 2026 to February 2027 |
| India 2026-27 foodgrain target | 373.93 million tonnes |
| Rabi target | 177.72 million tonnes |
| Maharashtra drought talukas | 305 of 358 |
Impact
Short-term: States facing dry conditions will push for central drought relief, crop insurance claims and loan relief, and farmers will weigh shorter-duration or less water-intensive rabi crops. Watch for further drought declarations and for the Centre's crop advisories.
Long-term: If the event peaks at historic strength and lasts into spring, planners will be watching its effect on water and crops well into 2027. Weather agencies will issue further updates on how the event evolves.
Who is affected: Farmers in rain-dependent districts, especially in Maharashtra, Telangana and other dry regions; rural lenders and crop insurers; state governments seeking drought aid;.
Key Takeaway
NOAA's October 15 outlook shows a still-strengthening El Niño likely to last into spring 2027, adding to drought pressures already hitting Indian states as the rabi sowing season begins.
Questions and Answers
What did NOAA say about El Niño in its 2026-27 winter forecast?
In its outlook released on October 15, 2026, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center said El Niño is still strengthening, put the weekly Niño 3.4 reading at 2.4 degrees Celsius above normal and said El Niño is favoured to continue through spring 2027.
How is El Niño affecting India's farm sector this year?
The agriculture ministry cut its 2026-27 foodgrain target to 373.93 million tonnes, citing El Niño, and Maharashtra has declared 305 of its 358 talukas drought-hit. Telangana has also sought central drought aid.
Could this be a record El Niño?
NOAA's October 8 update gave a high chance, between 54% and 83% depending on the three-month period, that the event reaches 2.5 degrees or more, which would make it stronger than any El Niño on records since 1950.
What should farmers expect in the rabi season?
The government plans to discourage water-intensive crops in water-short areas and promote pulses and oilseeds. Farmers should follow local advisories from agriculture departments and weather agencies as the season progresses.
Disclaimer: Prepared by the Peepals newsroom from publicly available sources with AI assistance. Information is accurate to the best of our knowledge at the time of publication and may change. Images may be representative. Not professional advice. Report an error via our contact page.
Sourced and fact-checked by the Peepals Global Editorial Team
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