Textile Futures 2040: H&M Foundation maps four futures, one Asia-led

Forum for the Future and the H&M Foundation released Textile Futures 2040 on Wednesday, 11 November 2026. The report sets out four scenarios for how the global textile and clothing industry could look in 2040. According to the two organisations, the futures are shaped by very different forces: corporate consolidation, the rise of emerging markets, local repair economies and decisions led by artificial intelligence (AI). In one of the four, China, India, Vietnam and Indonesia sit at the centre of the world economy.

Scenario planning means describing several different but believable futures, rather than guessing one, and asking whether a strategy would still work in each. Forum for the Future said the scenarios are meant for industry leaders to stress-test their assumptions about growth, technology, consumption and responsibility. A set of working tools comes with the report, so that companies and organisations can run their own strategy sessions on it.

For Indian fashion, the most direct point is the Asia-centred scenario. Summaries of the report describe a future in which the balance shifts towards Asian producers, and in which manufacturers could also become global brands in their own right. Another summary of the report says the position of brands weakens in three of the four futures, in favour of manufacturers, states or algorithms. For Indian exporters and garment makers who have long worked to orders from Western labels, that reverses the usual picture. The report presents this as a possibility, not a forecast.

Circularity, or keeping clothes and fibres in use, appears in every scenario, but in very different forms: industrial-scale recycling in one, local repair in another, and regeneration of nature in a third. One scenario gives repair, the remaking of garments and the recovery of materials real economic weight, and makes a secure supply of materials a competitive advantage. This matters in India, where the waste problem is already measured. The Ministry of Textiles' study "Mapping of Textile Waste Value Chain in India", released on 10 March 2026, estimates that the country generates nearly 70 lakh tonnes of textile waste a year and that India's textile recycling market could reach 3.5 billion US dollars by 2030.

Peepals calculation: Fashion Futures 2030, published in 2010, looked 20 years ahead, while Textile Futures 2040, published in 2026, looks 14 years ahead, a planning horizon 30% shorter (14 ÷ 20 = 0.70). Nearly 70 lakh tonnes of textile waste a year equals about 7 million tonnes, which over the 14 years to 2040 would add up to roughly 98 million tonnes if the yearly amount stayed the same (7 × 14 = 98). Our calculation from the reported figures.

Short-term: Brands, suppliers and industry bodies can use the scenarios and the companion tools in their own workshops now. Indian textile firms get a ready framework to discuss AI-led planning, regional supply chains and resource limits.

Long-term: If any of the four futures takes shape, the roles in fashion could change sharply. In the Asia-centred scenario, manufacturers in countries such as India gain weight; in "The New Noosphere", decisions on volumes and materials move towards algorithms tied to environmental limits.

Who is affected: Fashion brands and retailers, garment and textile manufacturers, designers, workers in the supply chain, recyclers and repair businesses, investors in fashion, and policymakers who regulate textiles and waste.

Questions and Answers