Hanging glacier above Badrinath could hit 398 buildings, study warns

A hanging glacier above Badrinath could set off an ice avalanche that would reach parts of the pilgrimage town, a new scientific study has warned. Researchers from the Indian Institute of Science (IISc), the University of Cambridge and the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO), in work funded by DRDO and published recently in the journal Landslides, used satellite images to identify three unstable hanging glaciers on the slopes above the town in Uttarakhand's Chamoli district. Their computer simulations show that, in the worst case, a fast-moving avalanche from one of them could affect 398 buildings, two bridges, a helipad, a parking area and more than two and a half kilometres of road. The authors stress that the danger is serious but not imminent, and that the Badrinath shrine itself is not directly in the modelled path.

Badrinath is one of the four shrines of the Char Dham Yatra and draws large numbers of pilgrims every season. The town has grown quickly, with hotels, guest houses, shops and parking built to serve visitors. The study's main message is that some of this growth sits in ground that an ice avalanche could reach.

A hanging glacier is a body of ice that clings to a steep mountainside above a valley, often ending at a cliff or very steep slope. When part of it breaks off, the ice can fall and slide at very high speed, picking up rock and snow on the way. In February 2021, a rock and ice avalanche from a hanging glacier in the same district set off a debris flow in the Rishiganga valley; a later scientific paper traced it to the detachment of part of a hanging glacier. That disaster showed how far and how fast such flows can travel.

The researchers link the instability of these glaciers to warming temperatures, which weaken the ice and the frozen ground that holds it. They do not predict a collapse date. Instead, they argue that the time to act is now, while there is no emergency: by mapping the danger zones, watching the glaciers closely and keeping new commercial buildings out of the most exposed corridors.

For pilgrims and travellers, the study does not mean Badrinath is unsafe to visit today. The researchers call the threat not imminent. It does mean that planning decisions in the town, from where new hotels go to how a warning would reach visitors, matter for future seasons.

Short-term: The findings are likely to prompt questions to the Uttarakhand government and district administration on hazard mapping, monitoring of the three glaciers, and building permissions in Badrinath. The shrine is scheduled to close for winter on November 16, which leaves time for review before the next season.

Long-term: If acted on, the study could lead to zoning rules that limit construction in avalanche corridors, an early-warning system, and changes to the planned redevelopment of the town. It also adds to evidence that Himalayan pilgrimage towns need risk planning that keeps pace with a warming climate.

Who is affected: Residents and business owners in Badrinath, the lakhs of pilgrims and tourists who visit each year, the temple administration, and the Uttarakhand government and Chamoli district authorities.

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