NBIS earnings: Nebius Q3 revenue up 571%, shares fall on spending plans

Nebius Group, the Nasdaq-listed company that sells computing capacity for artificial intelligence, reported third-quarter 2026 revenue of $980.8 million on Thursday, 12 November 2026, up 571% from a year earlier and well ahead of analysts' estimate of about $907 million. It also gave a first forecast for 2027 of $12 billion to $13 billion in revenue, above what Wall Street expected, alongside plans to spend $40 billion to $45 billion on capacity that year. Despite the beat, the shares (ticker NBIS) reversed early gains and fell about 8% in pre-market trading in New York.

Nebius is one of a group of companies, sometimes called "neoclouds", that build data centres full of high-end graphics processors and rent that computing power to companies training and running AI models. Their fortunes are a direct test of whether demand for AI computing is still growing fast enough to justify the huge sums being spent on chips, buildings and electricity. On revenue, the answer from this quarter is yes: sales grew more than six times in a year and beat forecasts by a wide margin.

The share price reaction shows what investors are now watching instead. The company said it expects 2026 revenue at the bottom of its range, not the middle or top, while it plans to spend far more than it earns. Capital spending of about $27 billion this year and $40 billion to $45 billion next year has to be paid for with borrowing, new shares or other financing. For a company that still reports a net loss, the gap between spending and revenue is the main risk. A summary of the release also said the company no longer regards annual recurring revenue, a measure it had highlighted before, as the right way to track the business; its run-rate stood at $6.4 billion at the end of September.

For Indian investors, Nebius is not listed in India, but its results are part of the wider story that moves global technology stocks, including the chipmakers and AI firms that Indian investors can reach through international funds. Strong demand with heavy spending is the pattern behind the AI trade worldwide, and the mixed reaction to Nebius suggests investors are becoming more selective.

Peepals calculation: Revenue of $980.8 million beat the roughly $907 million estimate by about 8% (980.8 ÷ 907 ≈ 1.08). Adjusted EBITDA was 47% of revenue (465.8 ÷ 980.8 ≈ 0.475). The 2027 plan implies capital spending of roughly 3.3 to 3.5 times expected revenue ($40 billion ÷ $12 billion ≈ 3.3; $45 billion ÷ $13 billion ≈ 3.5). Our calculation from the reported figures.

Short-term: The stock's fall despite record revenue signals that investors are focused on how Nebius will fund its spending and on the softer 2026 revenue guidance. Other AI infrastructure shares may be judged the same way when they report.

Long-term: If the 2027 forecast holds, Nebius would be a business with more than $12 billion in annual sales within a few years of rapid growth. If AI demand slows while its spending commitments stay high, the company would be exposed to heavy debt and unused capacity.

Who is affected: Nebius shareholders, AI companies that rent its computing power, chipmakers that supply the processors, lenders financing data-centre build-outs, and investors in global AI and technology funds.

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