Grynspan widens UN chief lead to 11 votes in seventh straw poll

Rebeca Grynspan of Costa Rica, the head of the UN trade and development body UNCTAD, widened her lead in the race to become the next UN Secretary-General in the Security Council's seventh informal straw poll, held on Friday, October 30, 2026. According to leaked results reported by several outlets, Grynspan received 11 "encourage" votes, 4 "discourage" votes and no "no opinion" votes from the Council's 15 members, up from nine "encourage" votes in the sixth poll on October 16. The United Arab Emirates' Lana Nusseibeh, who entered the race after the previous round, placed fourth in her first test. No candidate yet has the backing of all five permanent members, who hold a veto. On the same day, Türkiye formally nominated Feridun Sinirlioglu, the secretary-general of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), as a new candidate.

The United Nations has never had a woman Secretary-General, and this race has been watched closely by campaigners who want that to change. Three of the four best-placed candidates in the latest poll are women: Grynspan, Rodrigues-Birkett and Nusseibeh. Grynspan's gain of two "encourage" votes since mid-October strengthens her position as the front-runner, but the four "discourage" votes against her still matter. If any of those comes from a permanent member of the Council (China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom or the United States), it could signal a possible veto when the formal vote comes.

Straw polls are informal and non-binding. Council members mark each candidate as "encourage", "discourage" or "no opinion", and the results are meant to show who has a realistic chance. Because the outcome is not officially released, the numbers that reach the public come from diplomats and are reported by the press. Campaigners for a more open process say the reliance on leaks shows how little transparency the selection still has. Once the Council settles on a single name, it sends its recommendation to the General Assembly, which makes the appointment.

The poll was also a first test for Nusseibeh, a senior Emirati diplomat whose late entry drew attention because the UAE is not a traditional source of UN leaders. A fourth-place finish, with as many "discourage" votes as Rodrigues-Birkett, was described in some reports as a setback, and one analyst quoted in the coverage suggested she may have a longer road ahead than expected. Türkiye's nomination of Sinirlioglu adds another man to the field, which reports put at seven candidates before his entry.

Short-term: Grynspan enters November as the clear front-runner, while Nusseibeh and the new Turkish candidate must win over sceptical Council members. Reports say the next poll could slip to December, with some diplomats speculating that Russia may not allow a straw poll while Latvia holds the Council presidency in November.

Long-term: Whoever is chosen will lead the UN at a time of tight budgets, wars in several regions and pressure to reform the Security Council itself. If Grynspan or another woman is selected, it would end an eight-decade run of men in the post.

Who is affected: The candidates and the governments backing them; the 15 Security Council members, especially the five permanent members; UN staff and member states, including India, which has long pressed for Security Council reform and a stronger voice for the Global South in UN leadership.

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