India's trade deficit with China tops $105 billion in January-September 2026

India's trade deficit with China widened to $105.93 billion in the first nine months of 2026, an increase of 20.7% over the same period last year, according to Chinese customs data released on Wednesday, 14 October 2026. India's imports from China rose 23.3% to $125.19 billion between January and September, while India's exports to China grew faster, by 40.7%, but from a much smaller base, to $19.26 billion. Total two-way trade rose 25.4% to $144.45 billion. The data came out alongside China's September trade figures, which showed Chinese exports jumping 36.3% from a year earlier.

India buys far more from China than it sells there, and the gap keeps growing. Imports rose 23.3% in nine months, which points to strong demand from Indian businesses and consumers for Chinese goods, including inputs used by Indian factories.

The faster growth in Indian exports to China, at 40.7%, is a positive sign, but the numbers show the scale of the challenge. Exports of $19.26 billion are less than a sixth of imports of $125.19 billion. Even strong export growth barely dents a deficit of this size, which has now passed $100 billion for the first nine months of a calendar year.

The figures matter for policy. India has tried to reduce its dependence on Chinese supplies while still relying on many Chinese inputs. A deficit of more than $100 billion in nine months will add to the debate over how fast India can build its own supply chains, and what that costs in the meantime. It also comes as China's exports to the world are surging, with September shipments up 36.3%, which puts pressure on manufacturers in many countries, including India.

Short-term: The figures will feed into discussions on trade remedies, such as anti-dumping duties, and on support for Indian manufacturers competing with Chinese imports.

Long-term: Unless India's own production of components and machinery grows faster, the deficit is likely to keep rising with Indian manufacturing. Faster export growth to China could help narrow the gap over time, but only from a small base.

Who is affected: Indian manufacturers that depend on Chinese components, exporters selling to China, policymakers working on trade and industrial policy, and consumers who buy goods made with Chinese parts.

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