Lindsey Graham Act: Trump waives Russia oil tariffs, sparing India for now

US President Donald Trump on Friday, October 16, 2026, signed an executive order that waives Russia-related sanctions and tariffs required by the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act, a day or two before they were due to take effect. The law, known as the Graham Act and signed on September 18, says the president shall raise duties of up to 100 per cent on all goods from countries covered by it within 30 days, a deadline that falls on Saturday, October 18. Trump's order sets out tariffs on the five largest importers of Russian crude oil and natural gas if they make new purchases on or after October 18, and then, in the same document, suspends those measures. The order names no country. Trump said he had submitted to Congress a certification that the waiver "at this time is in the national interests of the United States". For India, a major buyer of Russian oil, the decision removes the immediate threat of tariffs of up to 100 per cent on its exports to the United States.

For India, this is the most direct consequence of the order. The Graham Act was designed to punish countries that keep buying Russian energy, and India's purchases of Russian crude put it in the line of fire. A duty of up to 100 per cent on Indian goods entering the United States would have hit exporters across sectors. By suspending the measures, Trump has spared India, and China, from an immediate trade shock. Earlier this year, in February, Washington had already removed an additional 25 per cent duty on Indian goods that was linked to New Delhi's purchases of Russian oil.

But the relief is conditional. The order does not cancel the tariffs; it suspends them, and they can be switched back on by the president or the secretary of state. That leaves a lever in Washington's hands just as Rubio arrives for talks in Mumbai and Jamnagar. Indian officials and companies will be watching closely for any signals on energy purchases during the visit.

The waiver also shows the tension in Washington over Russia policy. Some of Trump's own party wanted the law enforced, especially after the administration temporarily lifted sanctions on Russian fuel on October 9 to allow diesel exports to world markets. Trump has kept sanctions already in place, but the waiver gives him room to decide case by case instead of following the law's automatic triggers.

Short-term: Indian exporters avoid a sudden tariff shock this weekend. Oil importers can plan cargoes without an immediate US penalty, though uncertainty remains.

Long-term: Because the tariffs can be revived, India's purchases of Russian energy will remain a point of pressure in its relations with Washington, and could figure in trade negotiations.

Who is affected: Indian exporters to the US, Indian refiners buying Russian crude, the Indian government in its talks with Rubio, China and other large buyers of Russian energy, and Russia, whose energy revenues depend on these buyers.

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