Zelensky ends energy truce, says Ukraine will hit Russian refineries again

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Thursday, October 15, 2026, that Ukraine will resume drone strikes on Russian oil refineries, ending a three-day pause that Kyiv had observed at Washington's request. "We're done," he told the Financial Times, saying Russia had kept attacking Ukraine's energy system during the so-called energy ceasefire that US President Donald Trump announced on October 11. Within hours, a Ukrainian drone attack hit a refinery in Russia's Ryazan region, according to reports. Zelensky also accused the United States of pressuring Kyiv, saying US officials had warned that intelligence sharing could stop if Ukraine kept striking refineries, and said recent restrictions on Starlink satellite internet in Ukraine were "not a technical problem, it was the will."

Ukraine's long-range drone campaign against Russian refineries has been one of its main ways of hitting back at Russia's war economy. Oil and fuel exports fund a large part of Russia's budget, and damaged refineries mean less fuel for domestic use and for export. For the United States, the same strikes push up global fuel prices, which is why the Trump administration has tried to stop them. The short-lived energy truce was meant to protect power and fuel infrastructure on both sides; its collapse after three days shows how little trust exists between Moscow and Kyiv.

The open rift between Kyiv and Washington is just as significant. Ukraine depends on the United States for intelligence and for advanced air defence systems such as Patriot. Zelensky's public claims that US officials threatened to cut intelligence, and that Starlink access was deliberately restricted, mark an unusually sharp break. Starlink, run by Elon Musk's SpaceX, has been vital for Ukraine's military communications and drone operations, so any limits on it directly affect the battlefield.

For India, the developments matter through oil markets and diplomacy. Renewed strikes on Russian refineries can tighten fuel supplies and push up prices, at a time when oil is already expensive because of the conflict around the Strait of Hormuz. India is also a major buyer of Russian crude and faces US pressure over those purchases, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio due to visit India this month. A harder US line on Russia and Ukraine could shape that conversation.

Short-term: Expect more Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil facilities and continued Russian strikes on Ukraine's power grid. Oil markets may react to any damage to Russian refining capacity. Washington's response, including on intelligence sharing and Patriot supplies, will be closely watched.

Long-term: The episode could reshape the US-Ukraine relationship and weaken prospects for a negotiated end to the war if trust breaks down further. It also highlights how much Ukraine's military relies on privately owned infrastructure such as Starlink.

Who is affected: Ukrainian civilians facing attacks on power and heating as winter approaches, Russian fuel consumers and exporters, global oil buyers including India, and the US administration, which is balancing support for Kyiv against domestic fuel prices.

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