Rice exporters see 149-150 million tonne crop, exports above 24 million

India's rice exporters closed the Bharat International Rice Conference (BIRC) 2026 in New Delhi on October 25, 2026, saying the country's rice crop will be smaller this year but still large enough to support record exports. Leaders of the Indian Rice Exporters' Federation (IREF), which organised the three-day event at Bharat Mandapam from October 23, put this year's production at about 149 to 150 million tonnes, against about 154 million tonnes last year. IREF president Prem Garg also estimated that the conference generated business worth about Rs 50,000 crore, a figure he said was not final.

Rice is one of India's biggest farm exports, so an outlook from the exporters' own federation is closely watched by farmers, millers and overseas buyers. This year that outlook comes against a difficult season. A weak monsoon and El Nino concerns had raised fears of a sharp fall in output, and the federation used the conference to argue that the drop will be modest. In its words, a crop of about 149-150 million tonnes is down roughly 3% from the 154 million tonnes of last year, not a collapse.

The numbers matter for policy as much as for trade. Export policy becomes sensitive whenever a smaller crop is expected, because domestic supply comes first. The federation said that at present there are no restrictions on rice exports, and its case at BIRC was that a smaller crop still leaves enough grain for both domestic needs and a higher export volume. Whether that view holds will depend on the government's own crop estimates, which have not yet been released for this crop.

For the rural economy, export demand is one of the forces that holds up paddy and rice prices at the mandi. Higher export earnings, up about 13% in value in April-August according to the federation, mean more money moving through mills, traders and ports in the main rice states. The Rs 50,000 crore figure should be read with care: it is the federation's own estimate of deals discussed and signed at the event, not an audited or official trade number, and it will be spread over shipments made in the months ahead.

Short-term: Buyers who signed deals at BIRC will place shipments over the coming months, which supports demand for rice from mills in the main growing states. Exporters will watch for any change in government policy if official crop estimates turn out lower than the federation expects.

Long-term: Speakers at the conference argued that trade agreements, better port logistics and tighter quality control on pesticide residues could open markets where Indian rice has a small share. If exports grow towards the federation's target, India's position as a rice supplier would strengthen, but it also ties farm incomes more closely to global prices and to export policy.

Who is affected: Paddy farmers and rice millers, whose prices depend partly on export demand; exporters and traders; importing countries that rely on Indian rice; and households, since export policy is linked to the domestic supply and price of rice.

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