UNHCR before COP31: nearly 90 million displaced people face severe climate risk

Nearly 90 million people who have been forced from their homes by war, persecution or disasters are living in countries highly exposed to climate hazards such as floods, droughts and extreme heat, the UN refugee agency UNHCR said in a report released on Thursday, 5 November 2026, ahead of the COP31 climate summit. That is about three in every four forcibly displaced people in the world as of mid-2026, the agency said. UNHCR also said that only about 10% of global climate finance reaches the fragile and conflict-affected countries that host large numbers of displaced people. COP31, the annual UN climate conference, takes place in Antalya, Türkiye, from Monday, 9 November to Friday, 20 November 2026.

Climate change and displacement are usually discussed in separate rooms: one at climate summits, the other at humanitarian and refugee meetings. UNHCR's report is an attempt to bring them together just before the year's main climate negotiation. Its central point is that the people with the least protection, those already uprooted by conflict, are living in the places most exposed to climate shocks, and are the least likely to benefit from the money meant to help countries adapt.

The finance figure is the sharpest part of the argument. Climate finance, the money rich countries and institutions provide to help poorer ones cut emissions and adapt, tends to flow to stable countries that can manage projects and repay loans. Fragile and conflict-hit states struggle to qualify. UNHCR's estimate that only about a tenth reaches them suggests that adaptation money is bypassing the places where displaced families live in camps, informal settlements and overcrowded towns.

For India, the issue is relevant on two fronts. As a developing country taking part in the COP negotiations, India has a direct stake in decisions on how much climate finance flows from developed countries and who receives it. South Asia also faces many of the hazards the report describes, including floods, heat and drought, which already force people to move within their countries.

Peepals calculation: If nearly 90 million people make up about three-quarters of the world's forcibly displaced, the total forcibly displaced population implied by UNHCR's figures is roughly 120 million (90 ÷ 0.75 = 120). Put the other way, about one in four displaced people, around 30 million, live in countries with lower climate exposure. With only about 10% of climate finance reaching fragile and conflict-hit host countries, roughly nine of every ten climate-finance dollars go elsewhere. Our calculation from the reported figures.

Short-term: UNHCR will press governments at COP31 to count displaced people in their climate plans and in decisions on adaptation funding. In East Africa, agencies are preparing for possible El Niño flooding before the end of 2026.

Long-term: If displaced people are written into national climate plans, they could become eligible for adaptation projects such as flood defences, water supply and heat protection in the areas where they live. If not, the gap between where climate money goes and where risk is highest is likely to widen.

Who is affected: refugees and internally displaced people in climate-exposed countries; host governments in fragile states; climate negotiators at COP31, including India's; and donors and climate-finance institutions deciding where adaptation money goes.

What to watch next: COP31 in Antalya from 9 to 20 November 2026, and whether its decisions on adaptation finance mention displaced people.

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