Axon stock falls 18% as Dedrone delays force revenue forecast cut

Shares of Axon Enterprise, the US maker of TASER devices and police body cameras, fell about 17.5% to 18% on Friday, 6 November 2026, to their lowest level since August 2024, a day after the company cut its full-year revenue forecast. In its third-quarter results, released on Thursday, 5 November, Axon reported revenue of $908.55 million, up 28% from a year earlier, but below what analysts had expected. It lowered its 2026 revenue outlook to between $3.610 billion and $3.630 billion, from $3.670 billion to $3.725 billion, because about $130 million of federal deployments of its Dedrone counter-drone systems have been delayed.

Axon sells both devices and software subscriptions to police forces, and its share price has rested on expectations of fast revenue growth. Growth of 28% would be strong for most companies, but investors who pay a high price for a stock expect it to beat forecasts, not miss them. When the company missed estimates and cut its outlook in the same release, the reaction was sharp.

The cause matters as much as the size. The shortfall came from Dedrone, Axon's counter-drone business, which sells systems that detect and track drones. The company said federal deployments of these systems slipped out of the expected quarters. Analysts quoted in market reports described the deals as delayed rather than cancelled, and linked the slippage to procurement timing and the US election cycle. If that is right, the revenue moves into later periods; if not, it raises questions about how quickly government drone-defence spending will turn into sales.

The bright spot was software. Software and services revenue rose about 43% to $437 million and now makes up nearly half of the total, which is the part of the business investors value most. The weaker part of the report was cash: operating cash flow fell to $20 million as Axon built up inventory. Reports also noted that Axon has increased its investment in drone-response company Skydio, which shows it is still betting on drones despite the delays.

Peepals calculation: Axon's revenue fell about 3.1% short of the analyst consensus ($937.59 million against $908.55 million). The midpoint of its 2026 revenue range dropped from $3.6975 billion to $3.620 billion, a cut of about $77.5 million, or about 2.1%. Software and services made up about 48% of quarterly revenue (437 / 908.55). Our calculation from the reported figures.

Short-term: The fall wipes out a large slice of Axon's market value and puts the stock at a two-year low. Investors will look to the fourth quarter for signs that the delayed Dedrone deployments are coming through.

Long-term: Axon's case rests on software growth and new products such as drone defence. A strong software business supports that case, but repeated delays in government orders would test the high growth rates the market has priced in.

Who is affected: Axon shareholders and staff; US police and federal agencies that buy its products; and investors in other technology companies that depend on government contracts.

What to watch next: Axon's fourth-quarter results, which will show whether its $990 million to $1.01 billion guidance holds and whether the delayed federal Dedrone deployments are booked.

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