Broken rice export curbs may return as prices top $360: IREF

Broken rice export curbs could return, the Indian Rice Exporters' Federation (IREF) warned on Tuesday, 3 November 2026, after international prices for 100% broken rice rose above $360 a tonne. The federation's Director General, Vinod Kaul, said the rise "warrants serious attention" and that, if the trend continues, "the possibility of restrictions on broken rice exports cannot be ruled out". No new restriction has been announced by the government so far.

Broken rice is the grain that cracks during milling. It sells for less than whole rice, but the federation says it has become an industrial input with steady buyers among feed makers and distilleries. For rice millers, its price is part of what they earn from every tonne of paddy they process.

The federation's warning matters because India has acted on this grain before. In September 2022 the government banned broken rice exports to protect domestic supply and to keep feed and ethanol makers supplied. That ban stayed in place until March 2025, when the DGFT made exports free again. The federation is now saying the same conditions that led to the 2022 decision, rising domestic prices and heavy industrial demand, are appearing again.

The main new force is ethanol. India's ethanol-blending programme, which mixes ethanol made from grain and sugarcane into petrol, has pushed up demand for feedstocks such as broken rice, maize and surplus rice supplied by the Food Corporation of India (FCI), the federation said. When distilleries compete with feed makers and exporters for the same grain, domestic prices rise, and that is the trigger the government has watched in the past.

Peepals calculation: the average wholesale price rose from Rs 2,883 to Rs 3,036 a quintal between 10 October and 2 November, an increase of Rs 153, or about 5.3% in 23 days (153 ÷ 2,883 ≈ 0.053). Wholesale inflation for the grain also rose by about one percentage point in a single month, from 4.37% in August to 5.38% in September (5.38 − 4.37 = 1.01). Our calculation from the reported figures.

For exporters, the risk is in contracts signed ahead of shipment. A sudden curb could leave sold cargoes unshipped. This is why the federation has asked for consultation and a transition window, and has advised its members to be careful about new forward contracts and to keep watching domestic prices, the arrival of paddy at mills and demand from the ethanol sector.

Short-term: Exporters are likely to be cautious about signing new forward deals for broken rice while the price stays above $360 a tonne, as the federation has advised. Mills may hold back some stock until the policy picture is clearer.

Long-term: If the government restricts exports again, more broken rice would stay in India, which could ease costs for feed and ethanol makers but cut export earnings for millers and traders. If it does not act, the grain's domestic price will depend on how much the ethanol programme keeps drawing from the same supply.

Who is affected: Rice millers and exporters, poultry and animal feed makers, grain-based ethanol distilleries and overseas buyers of Indian broken rice.

What to watch next: Whether the government or the DGFT announces any change to the "Free" export status of broken rice, and whether the Department of Consumer Affairs' wholesale price keeps rising above Rs 3,036 a quintal.

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