Wheat sowing lags at 11,000 hectares as weak monsoon slows rabi season

Wheat sowing for the 2026-27 rabi (winter) season has barely begun in India, with about 11,000 hectares planted as of Friday, October 23, 2026, against about 27,000 hectares at the same point last year, according to Agriculture Ministry data reported on Tuesday, October 27. The ministry said wheat sowing had only just started in a few states. Total rabi coverage across all crops stood at 18.02 lakh hectares, down from 28.26 lakh hectares a year earlier, with oilseeds and pulses both behind. The slow start follows a deficient south-west monsoon that left less moisture in the soil and less water in reservoirs.

Rabi crops are sown from October to December and harvested from March to May. Wheat is the most important of them: it feeds the public distribution system, supports flour mills and bakeries, and sets the income of millions of farm households in Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan. Mustard and gram (chana) are the other big rabi crops, and they matter for edible oil and pulse supplies, both of which India still partly imports.

The early numbers do not yet show a failed season. Wheat is usually sown from late October to mid-December, so figures at the end of October cover only the first few days of planting. What the data does show is that farmers are starting more cautiously than last year. Reports on the data link this to the monsoon: rainfall from June to September was about 13% below normal, and two big wheat states, Punjab and Rajasthan, which together account for around 31% of India's wheat area, recorded deficits of 38% and 22% respectively. When the soil is dry, farmers without assured irrigation wait for moisture or for canal releases before they sow.

The sharper early gap is in oilseeds, mainly mustard, which is sown earlier than wheat and depends more on stored soil moisture. A slower mustard season would matter for India's edible oil import bill. Pulses are also behind. Coarse cereals are the one group ahead of last year, which is consistent with farmers in drier areas choosing hardier crops.

There is a more hopeful view. A report published on October 24 said wheat acreage was likely to stay broadly steady despite the weak monsoon, because most of the main wheat areas have irrigation from canals and tube wells. That would limit how far a poor monsoon can cut the sown area, though it raises pumping and diesel costs for farmers.

Rabi sowing at a glance (as of October 23) Crop group | 2026-27 (lakh ha) | 2025-26 (lakh ha) Wheat | 0.11 | 0.27 Oilseeds | 13.38 | 21.34 Pulses | 3.27 | 4.39 Coarse cereals | 0.23 | 0.13 All rabi crops | 18.02 | 28.26

Short-term: Mandis and traders will watch the weekly sowing figures closely in November. Demand for irrigation water, diesel and electricity for pumps is likely to rise in rain-short districts. Fertiliser demand may shift later into the season if sowing is delayed. The Centre has already approved a wheat minimum support price (MSP) of Rs 2,610 per quintal for the 2027-28 marketing season, when this crop will be sold, a rise of Rs 25.

Long-term: If the gap persists into December, it could affect wheat stocks in the central pool next year, the price of flour, and the amount of mustard oil produced at home. Late-sown wheat is also more exposed to heat in March, which can shrink the grain. A weak rabi season would come on top of a kharif season already hit by drought in several states.

Who is affected: Wheat, mustard and pulse farmers, especially in rain-fed districts of Rajasthan, Punjab and central India; flour mills and edible oil processors; and households, through food prices.

Questions and Answers