China October trade: imports surge 41.6%, surplus still tops $1 trillion

China's imports jumped about 41.6% from a year earlier in October 2026 to roughly $307 billion, the fastest growth in about five years, while exports rose about 35.2% to around $412.3 billion, according to customs data released on Tuesday, 10 November 2026. Imports far outpaced the roughly 32% rise that economists had forecast in a Reuters poll. As a result, China's monthly trade surplus narrowed to about $105.3 billion, from $133.5 billion in September and below the roughly $125.8 billion expected. Even so, the surplus for January to October reached about $1.04 trillion, crossing the $1 trillion mark for the second year in a row.

China's trade figures are one of the most closely watched gauges of the world economy. The October numbers stand out because both sides of the ledger grew very fast, and imports grew faster than exports. A sharp rise in imports suggests stronger demand inside China for goods from the rest of the world, which matters for countries and companies that sell raw materials, components and machinery to Chinese buyers. Some reports said Beijing is trying to address the imbalance in its trade with other countries.

But the bigger picture has not changed. China's trade surplus for the first ten months of the year has already passed $1 trillion, and reports say the country is on track to beat its record surplus of about $1.2 trillion set in 2025. That surplus is at the heart of trade tensions with the United States and Europe, both of which run large deficits with China. The October data show exports to the US still rising by about a third and shipments to the EU up by nearly a quarter, while imports from the EU fell.

The product mix is also telling. Semiconductor exports more than doubled from a year earlier, and car exports rose by more than a third. These are sectors where Chinese makers compete with manufacturers around the world.

For India, which is trying to build its own electronics and electric vehicle industries, Chinese export strength in chips and cars is directly relevant.

Peepals calculation: October exports of about $412.3 billion minus imports of about $307 billion gives the reported surplus of about $105.3 billion. The growth rates imply October 2025 exports of about $305 billion (412.3 / 1.352) and imports of about $217 billion (307 / 1.416), so imports added roughly $90 billion in a year against about $107 billion for exports. To beat 2025's record surplus of about $1.2 trillion, China needs about $160 billion more in November and December (1,200 − 1,040). Our calculation from the reported figures.

Short-term: Faster Chinese imports may support demand for exporters selling to China, while the still-huge surplus keeps trade frictions with the US and EU in focus.

Long-term: A new record surplus in 2026 would keep China's trade balance at the centre of its relations with major trading partners.

Who is affected: Exporters to China, manufacturers competing with Chinese chips and cars, including in India, and policymakers in the US and Europe.

What to watch next: China's November trade data, and whether the full-year surplus passes 2025's record of about $1.2 trillion.

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