Israel exit polls: neither Netanyahu nor Eisenkot bloc reaches 61-seat majority
By Rohan SalujaGeopolitics Editor, Peepals Global
Representative image: stevepb / Pixabay
Exit polls after Israel's October 27, 2026 election show neither Netanyahu's bloc nor Gadi Eisenkot's reaching 61 seats, as Arab parties head for a record.
What Happened
Exit polls released after voting closed in Israel's parliamentary election on Tuesday, October 27, 2026, showed no clear winner: neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc nor the opposition bloc led by former army chief Gadi Eisenkot was projected to reach the 61 seats needed for a majority in the 120-seat Knesset. The polls by Israel's main television channels differed and shifted during the night, but all put Netanyahu's bloc well below the 68 seats it held in the outgoing parliament. Arab parties were projected to win a record 18 to 19 seats. Official counting began overnight, and final results may not be ready until Friday.
Key Facts
- Majority needed: 61 of the Knesset's 120 seats.
- Channel 12's first exit poll gave the anti-Netanyahu bloc 52 seats and Netanyahu's bloc 50; a later update put Netanyahu's bloc at 52 and Eisenkot's at 49.
- Polls by Channels 11 and 13 showed the two blocs tied at 51 seats each.
- Channel 14, which is seen as pro-government, revised its projection for Netanyahu's bloc from 62 down to 60.
- Netanyahu's Likud was projected as the largest party, at about 24 to 27 seats; Eisenkot's Yashar! party was projected at about 21.
- Arab parties were projected at 18 to 19 seats, which would be their best result.
- Eisenkot did not claim victory, saying they were "only exit polls, and we need to wait for final results."
- Turnout had reached 74.3% by 8 pm, the highest at that hour since 1988, according to reports.
Why It Matters
The election was widely seen as a test of Netanyahu's long rule and his record in office, including on security and Iran. Eisenkot, a former chief of the army's general staff, ran as the main challenger. The exit polls suggest that voters have denied Netanyahu's current coalition a clear majority, but have not handed the opposition one either.
That leaves the Arab parties in a pivotal position. With 18 to 19 seats, their total could decide whether any government can be formed. Netanyahu has ruled out working with Arab parties. On the exit-poll numbers, Eisenkot's bloc could not reach 61 without some form of support from them, which would be politically sensitive.
Coalition talks begin only after the official results and can take weeks. If no leader can assemble 61 seats, the deadlock could drag on or lead to another election.
Exit polls often differ from the final count, and in a contest this close a shift of one or two seats could change the outcome. Special ballots could be counted into Friday, according to reports.
| Poll | Netanyahu bloc | Eisenkot bloc |
|---|---|---|
| Channel 12 (first) | 50 | 52 |
| Channel 12 (updated) | 52 | 49 |
| Channels 11 and 13 | 51 | 51 |
| Channel 14 (updated) | 60 | Not reported here |
| Outgoing Knesset | 68 | Not applicable |
Impact
Short-term: Israel waits for the official count, expected by Friday, before party leaders begin coalition talks. Markets and allies will watch for early signs of who can build a majority.
Long-term: If no stable coalition emerges, Israel could face prolonged political uncertainty or another election. A government that depends on Arab parties' support would be a major shift in Israeli politics. A new government could also change Israel's approach to the region, including Iran and Gaza.
Who is affected: Israeli voters and parties, Palestinians, neighbouring states, and Israel's partners abroad, including the United States, the European Union and India, which have close diplomatic, defence and trade ties with Israel.
Key Takeaway
Israel's October 27 election has produced exit polls with no bloc at 61 seats, leaving Arab parties as potential kingmakers and the outcome dependent on the final count.
Questions and Answers
Who won the Israel election 2026?
No one has a clear win yet. Exit polls after voting on October 27, 2026 showed neither Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc nor Gadi Eisenkot's bloc reaching the 61 seats needed for a majority. Official results are expected by Friday.
Who is Gadi Eisenkot?
Gadi Eisenkot is a former chief of staff of the Israeli army who led the main opposition bloc against Netanyahu in the 2026 election, heading the Yashar! party.
How many seats do Arab parties have in the exit polls?
Arab parties were projected to win 18 to 19 seats, which would be a record. Their seats could decide whether any bloc can form a government.
When will final results of the Israel election be known?
Counting began overnight on October 27-28. Reports said final results may not be ready until Friday, as special ballots are still being counted.
Disclaimer: Prepared by the Peepals newsroom from publicly available sources with AI assistance. Information is accurate to the best of our knowledge at the time of publication and may change. Images may be representative. Not professional advice. Report an error via our contact page.
By Rohan Saluja, Geopolitics EditorCovers Geopolitics and more for Peepals Global. All stories by Rohan Saluja
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Rohan Saluja is a pen name of the Peepals Global Editorial Team, which researches, fact-checks and publishes every story. The portrait is an illustration.
